Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
Mutual funds are loading up on information technology (IT) stocks on improved valuations and low downside risk after a double-digit correction in top companies like Infosys and Wipro. IT stocks were MFs' top sectoral buys in April when they invested a net of Rs 2,100 crore. In the first four months of 2023, the net investments in IT amounted to Rs 9,500 crore, shows an analysis by ICICI Securities.
Two young men jostle in a rickshaw as it clatters along a narrow, bustling lane of North Kolkata, each with a leg dangling over the side of the vehicle, a bulging sack of cosmetics nestled between them. The protagonists here are the founders of Emami - Radhe Shyam Agarwal and Radhe Shyam Goenka - childhood friends who gave up cushy corporate jobs to build a fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company. From a 200-square-foot rented space on Muktaram Babu Street in North Kolkata, brand Emami stepped into the competitive world of FMCG 50 years back, armed with just three products: Vanishing cream, talcum powder, and cold cream.
NSE Indices on Wednesday changed the methodology for handling schemes of demerger involving index constituents. The index provider said a company undergoing demerger would now be retained in its indices. The move comes ahead of the proposed demerger of Reliance Industries' (RIL's) financial services arm. Under the rules prevailing thus far, RIL -- which has the highest weighting among the 50 Nifty components -- would have been required to be removed from the index, resulting in a churn by funds tracking the Nifty index.
Shares of asset management companies (AMCs) have rallied in the last 3-4 sessions due to clarity on regulatory changes in total expense ratios (TER) and expectations that it won't upset profits much in the long run. HDFC AMC has gained over 12 per cent in the last four sessions, while Nippon AMC and UTI AMC are up around 5 per cent. Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL), the only other listed AMCs, has risen more than 2.3 per cent in the last four sessions.
The stock of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (AHEL), India's largest listed health care services company, fell 4.6 per cent on Monday (April 29) and slipped another 0.34 per cent to close at Rs 5,946.20 on Tuesday (April 30). The share declined due to a lower valuation for subsidiary Apollo HealthCo (AHL) and an aggressive valuation for Keimed, a promoter-owned drug wholesaler that is merging with AHL.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
An in-line ICICI Bank result for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, has led to analysts raising target price and earnings per share (EPS) forecast on the stock. ICICI Bank, they said, appeared least vulnerable to regulatory action on its digital offerings or for risk monitoring lapses.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
India's most valued company, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), reported a robust performance in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), surpassing analyst expectations. This coupled with positive commentary by brokerages led to the stock of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate surging as much as 4.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,325.1. It settled at Rs 1,301.3 apiece, up 2.57 per cent.
Ambuja Cements' announcement that it would acquire Hyderabad-based Penna Cement Industries could be the Adani Group company's first step for wider inorganic expansion, according to analysts.
Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
Street gave a thumbs down to Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)-TCNS Clothing deal as analysts flagged near-term profitability risks for ABFRL with its latest acquisition. At the bourses, shares of the Aditya Birla group company tumbled 6.2 per cent in the intra-day trade, before settling 3.27 per cent lower at R 207.2. Those of TCNS, meanwhile, plunged 20 per cent to end at Rs 416.64.
Adani Group on Friday raised Rs 4,850 crore from the sale of 13.5 per cent of its stake in Fortune oil maker Adani Wilmar as part of a strategy to exit non-core activities to focus on main infrastructure business. The conglomerate, which last month announced its exit from Adani Wilmar by selling the bulk of its stake to a joint venture partner, had on Thursday announced sale of 17.54 crore shares (13.50 per cent equity) in the company on January 10 (to non-retail investors) and on January 13 (to retail investors) at a floor or minimum price of Rs 275 apiece.
Despite volume growth in the export segment and strong demand in the domestic market, pricing uptick is eluding Indian agrochemical companies.
Shares of ICICI Bank may outperform those of HDFC Bank in the near-term, analysts said recently, after the Sandeep Bakhshi-led private sector lender reported a strong set of numbers for the July to September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The result, they said, reiterated that ICICI Bank is maintaining a sustainable and prudent growth led by tech-driven initiatives as against HDFC Bank, which is facing merger related challenges. According to analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Bank is valued at par with HDFC Bank at 2.2x/1.9x on FY25/26E core adjusted book value (ABV) basis.
Analysts have given a thumbs up to the Reliance Industries (RIL) and Walt Disney Co. (Disney) proposed a joint venture (JV). The stock of the Mukesh Ambani-controlled company gained nearly 1.5 per cent on Thursday to Rs 2,952 levels as compared to the S&P BSE Sensex that traded marginally weak, down 0.2 per cent to 72,172 levels in intra-day trades.
Billionaire Gautam Adani-led group's power transmission unit has raised $1 billion through a share sale, the first public equity raise by the conglomerate since a damning Hindenburg report, which wiped away billions in shareholder value. Adani Energy Solutions Ltd raised the funds through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) issue, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The QIP, which opened on Tuesday, was oversubscribed three times with demand of about Rs 26,000 crore - making it the largest transaction in India's energy space.
It may be a little early to cheer the recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space as a deceleration in discretionary demand, after the festival season, may offset fragile rural recovery, analysts have cautioned. "The overall demand environment for staples remains muted, while discretionary demand trends have seen some deceleration after the festival season. "We believe margins in staples have bottomed out, but we expect only a gradual uptick with the ongoing softening in raw material prices.
Mutual funds (MFs) invested a record Rs 1.73 trillion in equities in the financial year 2022-23 (FY23), providing strong support to the Indian markets at a time when foreign investors were redeeming their holdings. They exceeded the previous high of nearly Rs 1.72 trillion investment in equities in FY22. The data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows MFs were net buyers in the equity market in eleven of the twelve months last financial year.
Re-rating of Axis Bank's stock may continue in the near-future, believe analysts, as the risk-reward on the stock remains favourable amid healthy financials. The bullish stance comes after the Mumbai-based lender delivered a strong outperformance in the March quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4FY24) on core pre-provision profit and net profit, with improving asset quality. Axis Bank's net interest margin (NIM) expanded, against expectations, even in a tough market.
SBI Q3FY24 result review: A higher-than-factored weakness in the October-to-December quarter (Q3) results of State Bank of India (SBI), for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), has prompted brokerages to cut earnings estimates for the ongoing financial year. They, however, have maintained 'Buy' ratings on the stock, revising target price upwards in some cases, owing to the stock's recent underperformance relative to its peers.
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
Bank of Baroda Q4 results: Key brokerages have raised their target prices on Bank of Baroda after the state-owned lender posted better-than-expected March quarter (Q4FY23) results. Analysts now see up to 29 per cent upside in the stock from a one-year perspective as they believe BoB is well-placed among the large public banks with nearly all key business metrics moving closer to the top-tier banks. Valuations, too, remain attractive despite steady strong quarterly performances.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Automobile manufacturers are likely to report strong numbers for the September quarter of Financial Year 2023-24 (Q2 FY24), riding on growth across segments and offset by a marginal drop in overall two-wheeler (2W) volumes. Higher average selling price (ASP) year-on-year (YoY), which was necessitated by price hikes taken by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and an improved product mix will also aid revenues and margins. Moreover, commodity prices are down on a YoY basis, leading to higher margins in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).
Analysts have turned cautious on Cipla, as the recently issued form 483 by the US FDA with eight observations to its Pithampur (Indore) plant is expected to delay the launch of the company's key generic - Advair - in the US. The Indore plant contributes around 5 per cent of Cipla's revenues, as per analysts' estimates. While the respiratory product, which is used to treat asthma, had cleared the pre-approval inspection of the regulator at the Indore unit; the final approval could be unlikely until the company clears the recent US FDA observations, analysts say.
Backed by their strong physical presence across the country, UTI Mutual Fund and SBI Mutual Fund (MF) have managed to mobilise a higher proportion of their total assets under management (AUM) from towns and villages than their peers. Data compiled by Nuvama Institutional Equities shows that UTI MF and SBI MF are the only two major fund houses with over a fifth of their AUM coming from areas beyond the top 30 cities (referred to as B-30). UTI MF tops the chart with 23.8 per cent of its assets belonging to B-30 centres, followed by SBI MF with 21.2 per cent B-30 assets. The industry average stands at 17 per cent.
Earnings growth trajectory for India's capital goods firms is likely to stay buoyant for the December 2023-ended quarter (Q3 FY24), said analysts. Guidance on margins, ordering activity in an election year and export-related demand would be key monitorables. Brokerages - Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, Kotak Institutional Equities and Prabhudas Lilladher - estimated revenue growth for their capital goods universe to be 11-16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
The duty hike on cigarettes by 16 per cent announced in the Union Budget 2023-24 would have a nominal impact of around 7-12 paise per stick across cigarette categories, according to experts. This upward revision in National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) would have negligible impact on smokers and the companies could easily absorb the shock as it may not also have any resultant impact on margins, they said. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharama in the Union Budget for 2023-24 on Wednesday proposed to revise and increase the duty on cigarettes to about 16 per cent.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
A likely turnaround in profitability margins in the March quarter (Q4FY23) will not be enough to lift the outlook for paint stocks due to volatile crude oil prices and rising competition in the sector, analysts say. Hence, they advise investors to avoid the sector over the short-to-medium term despite the heavy correction in the stocks since last year. Shares of Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Indigo Paints, Nerolac and Pidilite have shed 6-32 per cent over the last 6 months versus a 3 per cent rise in the benchmark Sensex.
Industry experts believe that this deal will positively impact the Indian film industry, which is struggling with fewer movie releases.
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